In Morality and Religion, it was stated
that "this data indicates that theists are more than 40 times more likely than atheists to end up in prison." The number 40
was calculated from the following data: 1) atheists make up 0.209% of the US prison population, and 2)
atheists make up 8-16% of the general US population. (The referenced
Holysmoke article did not say why
there was such a large range for the percentage of atheists in the general population, but it probably has to do with
how the question was asked. A survey that
asks "Are you an atheist?" will give very different results from a survey that asks "Do you believe
in a conscious being that created the universe and that listens to our prayers?")
Using the lower figure of 8%, the fraction of atheists
that are in prison is (0.00209 N)/(0.08 M), where N is the number of prisoners and
M is the number of people in the general population. Similarly, the fraction of theists that are
in prison is ((1-0.00209) N)/((1-0.08) M). The desired result is the ratio of these numbers, which
is about 42. If we had used the mean value of 12% for the percentage of atheists in the
general population, we would have found that theists are about 65 times more likely than atheists to end
up in prison.
